AFC Wild Card Preview: Steelers Vs. Broncos

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) vs. Denver Broncos (8-8)

Sports Authority Field - Denver, CO.

January 8th, 2012

The Pittsburgh Steelers will travel to the Mile High City to take on the Denver Broncos, champions of the AFC West division.   This will be Denver's first playoff appearance in six years.

Pittsburgh has been fighting the injury bug all season but has done well to overcome them and post a 12-4 record.  They will have to continue to live up to Mike Tomlin's expectations of "The standard is the standard" if they want to come out of Denver with a win.

The Steelers have struggled on the road this season, posting a 5-3 record away from Heinz Field.  Normally this might be huge cause for concern but Denver hasn't played very well at home this year, going 3-5 at Sports Authority Field. 

Pittsburgh lost starting running back Rashard Mendenhall last week to a season ending knee injury and will now hand over the starting job to Isaac Redman.   Redman has had a solid season averaging 4.4 YPC, which is better than Mendenhall.  He's not as big of a passing threat out of the backfield, however,  and is not as adept at picking up opposing blitzes.  This could be a key matchup against the strong front seven of the Denver Broncos.

Ben Roethlisberger apparently suffered a setback in his recovery from a high ankle sprain during last week's 13-9 victory over Cleveland, so it will be interesting to see how much it continues to hamper his mobility, which is a big part of Roethlisberger's game.   Even at 50% he is a better passing threat than Tim Tebow or even Brady Quinn if the Broncos decide to start him.  Quinn reportedly has been taking some first team snaps during practice this week.

The Steelers wide receiving corps is considerably more dangerous than the Broncos.  Antonio Brown was named team MVP after becoming the first player in NFL history to have both 1000 yards in receiving and return yards.  Mike Wallace has struggled a bit in the second half but is still a Pro Bowl caliber wide receiver.  The Steelers also have experienced veterans in Hines Ward and Jerrico Cotchery, and Emmanuel Sanders could also play a key role as he slowly recovers from an injury.

Denver's wide receivers have struggled to find consistency whether it was with Kyle Orton or Tim Tebow at the helm.  At this point I think the Broncos best chance for victory is to keep Tim Tebow in the game.  Putting Quinn in for his first start in over two years against the Steelers defense isn't exactly the smartest strategy right now. 

Pittsburgh should have LaMarr Woodley back for this one, which would be a huge boost for the Steelers pass rush and ability to contain Tim Tebow.   It will allow the Steelers to move Lawrence Timmons back inside where he plays a lot better.  

Maurkice Pouncey, the all-pro center for the Steelers, will miss this game, which limit the Steelers ability to protect their hobbled quarterback.  Missing starters on the offensive line is nothing new for the Steelers who have been juggling the line constantly for the past two years.  No one can seem to stay healthy.

Keys to the game

• Pittsburgh needs to avoid turnovers.  I think the Steelers have too much experience and offensive firepower for the younger, inexperienced Broncos.  If the Steelers start turning the ball over it will keep Denver in the game longer and give Tim Tebow a chance to pull one of his fourth quarter miracles.
• Feed Isaac Redman the ball.  Ben is hobbled, so you shouldn't force him to be the centerpiece of the offense this week.  Yes you'll have to pass to maintain balance in the attack, but Redman should be able to generate some offense against the 22nd ranked rushing defense in the league. 
• Tim Tebow needs to keep his composure.  During the Broncos winning streak, Tebow was praised for his ability to avoid the interception.  He's not going to win the game for the Broncos but he could certainly lose it for them if he's careless with the ball.
• Denver needs to attack the Steelers depleted offensive line.  If they can get to Roethlisberger early it could force Ben into making some errant throws and lead to some turnovers.  Denver will be without Brian Dawkins, so the two safeties will be extremely inexperienced, so Denver cannot give Ben time to find those receivers open downfield.
• If Pittsburgh can open up the game early, I don't see Denver having much of a chance.  If Denver manages to keep the game close, it could come down to a game of field goals, which I feel could favor the Broncos.  Matt Prater has hit from 59 yards out and hit on 76% of his kicks, whereas Shaun Suisham has hit on 74.2% with a max range of 51 yards.   

Even with the injuries,  I still like Pittsburgh's chances in this game given the amount of playoff experience they have as well as the fact they flat out have the better quarterback.  It's not likely going to be an offensive explosion, but I think Pittsburgh will advance to play either the Patriots or Ravens next weekend.

THE VOICE SAYS....PITTSBURGH 17, DENVER 10

Also I'll make my other wildcard predictions.
New Orleans over Detroit 38-24
Cincinnati over Houston 21-17
Atlanta over New York 28-21